Federal Budgets and Fiscal Policy

The U.S. faces a large medium-term federal budget deficit and an unsustainable long-term fiscal gap. Left unattended, these shortfalls will hobble and eventually cripple the economy. The only plausible way to close the gap is through a combination of spending cuts and/or tax increases. This paper discusses why a federal Value Added Tax (VAT) should be part of a constructive solution to the fiscal problem.

Even though children in the United States have higher poverty rates than adults and the elderly, federal spending on kids is disproportionately small and has been shrinking for years. The recession threatened to eat away further at those investments, prompting the president and Congress to temporarily boost funding for some two dozen federal programs that benefit children. To support the development of children in low-income families, we recommend making some of those provisions permanent. We also propose new investments in the preschool and postsecondary years when public spending is at its lowest, while also experimenting with new initiatives to support low-income children.

The Wyden-Gregg tax reform proposal would represent a broad reform of the federal income tax system. This paper examines the plan's impact on individuals' effective marginal tax rates (EMTR), the incremental amount of tax owed on an additional dollar of income. We examine the impact on the EMTR for both wage income and realized capital gains against current law and current policy baselines. We find the Wyden-Gregg plan would lower the overall average EMTR on wages relative to both current law and current policy, but would raise the overall average EMTR on gains when compared with those same two baselines.

Kids' Share 2010: Report on Federal Expenditures on Children through 2009, a fourth annual report, looks comprehensively at trends in federal spending and tax expenditures on children. Key findings suggest that historically children have not been a budget priority. In 2009, this trend continued, as children's spending accounted for less than one-tenth of federal outlays. While the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provides a temporary boost, children's spending will continue to be squeezed in the next decade.

Donald Marron's testimony before the Senate Committee on Finance on the individual tax system.